Methodology
Forekall is built around predictive signals for retail investors. This page explains how to think about the output, the limits, and the difference between live evidence and narrative.
What a signal is
A signal is a structured directional view generated by the model for a given asset and horizon. It is not a guarantee and should be interpreted in context.
Why live results matter
Live results matter more than a polished story. Backtests can be useful, but they are not the same as real forward performance.
What confidence means
Confidence reflects how strongly the model leans toward a directional outcome. It should not be interpreted as certainty.
What precision does and does not say
Precision tells you how often directional calls were correct, but it does not fully capture payoff asymmetry, drawdown, or risk.
Risk and limitations
All market-facing systems are exposed to changing regimes, noise, and model drift. Signals should be read as decision support, not certainty.
Retail-first framing
Forekall is built to give retail investors access to structured predictive signals in a clear, usable product rather than a wall of opaque complexity.
Important framing
This methodology page is intentionally high-level. It is meant to explain how Forekall thinks about signals, live evidence, and uncertainty. It is not a guarantee page and should not be read as one.